投资要点/Investment Thesis
2021年上半年实现营收23.16亿元，同比下降9.34%，其中调味品实现营收22.11亿元，占比95.45%维持高位，主业地位稳固。2021 年上半年，公司受到前期高库存、社区团购对线下渠道价格的冲击、原材料成本上涨等不利因素的影响，短期经营受到冲击。分品类看，公司2021年上半年酱油/鸡精鸡粉/食用油分别实现营收13.81/2.73/2.06亿元，同比-12.78%/29.29%/-31.50%，其中酱油呈现下跌，我们判断与公司主动进行渠道库存清理有关。渠道方面，公司持续加快渠道网络建设，2021年上半年，经销商数量较年初净增215个至1636个，同比增长15.13%。分区域看，北部/中西部/南部全年营收同比-13.87%/-20.43%/-10.04%，东部营收同比微增0.29%；北部/中西部经销商数量净增131/57家，渠道网络加速下沉。展望21年下半年，我们预计公司渠道网络建设仍将提速，加快布局多品类产品结构，同时坚定不移推动营销变革，提振经销商与营销人员的信心，促进营销增长。
In 1H21, revenue came to RMB2.32bn, down 9.34%?yoy. Breaking this down, condiments generated RMB2.21bn, accounting for 95.45% of the total, maintaining a high proportion as its core business. In the period, the company was plagued by unfavorable factors such as high inventory at the beginning, community group purchases affecting offline channel prices and rising raw materials costs, all of which hampered short-term operations. In 1H21, soy sauce/chicken powder/edible oils contributed revenue of RMB1.38bn/273m/206m,-12.78%/+29.29%/
-31.50%?yoy. The soy sauce decline was due to?Jonjee’s?efforts to clear channel inventory. The number of distributors increased by 215 to 1,636 from the beginning of the year, up 15.13%?yoy. Regionally, North/Midwest/South revenues declined 13.87%/20.43%/10.04%?yoy, while the East increased slightly by?0.29%. The number of distributors in the North/Midwest increased by 131/57?as its?channel network?expansion?accelerated. Looking?ahead to 2H21, we expect?its?channel network?buildout?will continue,?which would help its expanded multi-category product structure. We expect?Jonjee’s?marketing reforms to continue, which would boost the confidence of its dealers and marketing?personnel, and?promote marketing growth.
公司2021年上半年实现归母净利润2.80亿元，同比下降38.51%；归母净利率为12.08%，相比去年同期-5.73pcts。其中美味鲜贡献净利3.29亿元，同比减少33.54%。21年上半年公司调味品主营收入毛利率同比-5.04pcts至37.35%，我们判断主因黄豆、添加剂等原材料价格上升增加成本所致。费用方面，21年上半年公司销售费用率/管理费用率/研发费用率/财务费用率分别为11.87%/5.95%/3.75%/0.42%，费用同比-9.35/+5.12/+18.35/907.32pcts，其中销售费用下降是由于公司应对社区团购价格冲击，主动规范市场价格，销售返利减少；研发费用提升明显，公司正积极布局各品类产品的系列化延伸，以进一步满足不同消费群体、不同渠道、不同场景的多方面需求。
In 1H21,?Jonjee?generated net profit of RMB280m, down 38.51%?yoy, and net margin was at 12.08%, down 5.73ppt?yoy. Subsidiary Guangzhou?Meiweixian?Flavoring Foods contributed RMB329m to net profit, down 33.54%?yoy. Gross profit margin of condiments was down 5.04ppt to 37.35% and we attribute this to an increase in raw materials costs, such as soybeans and additives. 1Q21 sales/management /RD/financial expense ratios were 11.87%/ 5.95%/ 3.75%/ 0.42%, changing -9.35/+5.12/+18.35/+907.32ppt?yoy. The lower sales expenses were due to the company’s response to the impact of community group purchase prices, standardization of market prices and sales rebate reduction. RD cost rose significantly as the company extended various product series to meet the needs of different consumer groups,?channels?and scenarios.
盈利预测与估值/Valuation
根据公司21年中报和未来展望，我们将公司2021-2023年收入由62.90/77.72/95.04亿元，调整至52.53/64.50/76.55亿元，同比+2.54%/22.79%/18.68%，归母净利润由10.02/12.72/15.93亿元调整至7.28/9.31/11.29亿元，同比-18.17%/+27.83%/21.26%，EPS分别为0.91/1.17/1.42元，下调公司评级至“持有”评级。
In view of?Jonjee’s?1H21 results and prospects, we adjust our revenue forecasts for 2021/22/23E to RMB5.25bn/6.45bn/7.66bn (previously RMB6.29bn/7.77bn/9.5bn), representing increases of 2.54%/22.79%/18.68%?yoy, and net profit to RMB728m/931m/1.129bn (previously RMB1bn/?1.27bn/1.59bn),-18.17%/+27.83%/+21.26%?yoy, with EPS at RMB0.91/1.17/1.42. We downgrade the stock to NEUTRAL (from BUY).
风险提示：全国化进展不及预期，餐饮渠道拓展缓慢，食品安全风险等。.
Risks include：nation-wide distribution and catering channel expansion falling below expectations; and food safety risks.
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